“Last time there was a figure who carried real
weight; it was a man who was three or four times more influential than
the rest of the cardinals. He was none other than Joseph Ratzinger. This
is not the case this time. Therefore, the choice has to be made from
one, two, three, four … a dozen candidates. Right now we don’t know
anything, we have to wait for the results of the first ballot.” These words, spoken yesterday by the Archbishop of Lyon, Cardinal Philippe Barbarin, givean important snapshot of the situation on the eve of the Conclave, the assembly that is about to elect the 266th successor of Peter
Obviously the cardinal would not have spoken in those terms had a strong candidate already been found; someone who is able to obtain the 77 votes necessary for becoming Pope. But his words echo those of the Archbishop of Paris, Cardinal André Vingt-Trois, who a few days ago mentioned “roughly half dozen candidates”.
They also echo those of other cardinals from all over the world, who, during the informal discussions held over the last couple of days, have shown they are still open to considering alternative candidates.
There seems to be one established certainty. Already as of tomorrow evening, when the 115 voters will shut themselves in the Sistine Chapel for the election, a fair number of votes (some mentioned 35, others 40) should go to the Archbishop of Milan, Angelo Scola, who has the support of various European cardinals and a few Americans.
If he is elected, the papacy will become Italian again, thirty-five years after the election of John Paul I. Another candidate who should gather a fair amount of consensus is the Archbishop of São Paulo, Odilo Pedro Scherer, a Brazilian with a long experience in the Curia. Unconfirmed reports on the eve of the Conclave - which of course need to be taken with a pinch of salt – suggest the Brazilian could get 25 votes.
A third candidate who might stand out from the beginning is the Canadian Marc Ouellet, Prefect of the Congregation for Bishops who is believed to be able to draw to himself twelve votes from South America and the United States.
Other favourite candidates are the Archbishop of Boston, the Capuchin Sean O’Malley and the Archbishop of New York, Timothy Dolan. Malcom Ranjith Patabendige Don, Archbishop of Colombo might also attract a few votes.
The Archbishop of Buenos Aires Jorge Mario Bergoglio and the Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle are not to be excluded either. They are two outsiders who could gather consensus. In fact, during the general congregations last week, both cardinals delivered speeches that found widespread appreciation.
The first ballot will highlight the front-runners. From the second ballot onwards, it will be possible to see if and how much consensus will grow for one or two of these candidates, or if other names that were left out at first will pop up, like that of the Hungarian Peter Erdö or the Austrian Cristoph Schönborn.
In 2005 Joseph Ratzinger was like a magnet and support for him grew relentlessly until he reached the quorum. It will be hard to repeat the feat this time round. Despite the obvious problems concerning the management of the Curia, the electorate of the pope ultimately has to elect a pope, not a Secretariat of State. Therefore, even though the issues of government and collegiality have been very present in the debate, evangelization remains the priprity, as stated by two African cardinals who celebrated mass yesterday in the parish churches of Rome that they are appointed to lead.
“We must bring joy in this world” said the archbishop of Abuja, John Onaiyekan “ a world that is full of bad things too, but which remains our world. Angels without sin dwell in heaven, we are meant to bring peace among sinners”. While the Ghanian Peter Turkson said: “ The Church exists to accompany humanity”
Yesterday cardinals continued to discreetly make contacts and exchange ideas.
This morning there will be a new general congregation to allow a few more speeches.
Then tomorrow evening the first election results will be unveiled beneath the Last Judgement by Michelangelo.