One would think that at least a couple of frontrunners would have surfaced by now.
Prior to the last conclave, everyone recognized Ratzinger was the front runner on the day the conclave began.
The same was true for Paul VI and Pius XII.
And although John Paul’s election was a surprise, there still were front runners prior to the conclave: Cardinals Giovanni Benelli and Giuseppe Siri.
When they deadlocked, the conclave looked for someone outside of Italy.
Why no front runner? Here are four hypotheses.
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The cardinals need more time to get to know each other. Remember, 24
of the cardinals were appointed last year. That is one-fifth of the
electors. While the curial cardinals and the more senior cardinals may
know most of the cardinals, the newer cardinals are still matching faces
to bios. The cardinals from outside Rome also know little about each
other. This was the argument of those who did not want to rush into the
conclave. Why hurry? This is the most important thing the cardinals will
ever do in their lives.
-
The Roman curia is so divided that it is not capable of organizing a
successful campaign as it did at the last conclave for Cardinal
Ratzinger. Likewise, the Italians are divided. When it comes to church
politics, these are the major players while the cardinals from outside
Rome are from the minor leagues. So far, the outsiders don’t even have
someone to organize against. But Vatileaks revealed and exacerbated the
divisions within the curia. One faction is loyal to Cardinal Tarcisio
Bertone, and the other faction thinks he is the worst Secretary of State
ever. They cannot work together. Even the anti-Bertone faction is not
in agreement except in its opposition to him.
-
The College of Cardinals is filled with B students. This explanation
argues that there are no outstanding members who are so good that they
catch everyone’s attention. Even the cardinals recognize this and
therefore are having a hard time making up their minds. There is no
Martini, no Ratzinger, no Pacelli, no Montini, no Benelli in this
crowd. In selecting bishops and cardinals, Popes John Paul and Benedict
put such a stress on loyalty that the talents necessary in a pope are
lacking. On the other hand, it is doubtful that Christoph Schonborn or
Gianfranco Ravasi ever got a “B” in their lives. But are academic chops
enough this time?
- Or it could be that there are so many qualified candidates that the cardinals are having a hard time choosing. Check out John Allen’s list.
Or is there another reason for a lack of frontrunners?
Only the cardinals know and they are no longer talking.